Wednesday, June 18, 2014

Ensuring Corporate Victory by Using OODA Loops

SUBJECT: Better decision making with OODA loops. Bitcoin advents. 
ASSIGNMENT: Find a knowledgeable (and trustworthy) cryptocurrency consultant 
CLIENT: A large venture capital firm

I’m sitting on a bench by Claw Fountain in White Plaza at Stanford University and entering this directly into a tablet while it’s fresh in my mind since I was asked to not record the interview. It’s the final interview for a cryptocurrency consultant position, focusing on Bitcoin. (This is the third cryptocurrency interviewing or recruiting assignment in the last 4 months alone.) It was an interesting discussion as we did the fountain walk and not just because it involved bitcoin. I’ve been involved with cryptocurrency for a few years now and, in fact, funded a small ‘mining’ operation for bitcoins back when simple graphics cards could economically solve the complex equations required to create the currency and run the underlying bitcoin ecosystem. In addition, I’ve been paid in bitcoin for services (an interesting story in itself…). There’s no longer any question about it, peer-to-peer cryptocurrencies like bitcoin have some very interesting, and useful, properties in today’s overstressed global economy, not to mention the banking world.

However, as interesting as largely unregulable cryptocurrencies are in an age of aggressive global quantitative easing by the central banks (unnerving), there was an aspect of our conversations that I found even more engaging. The candidate had been a fighter pilot and he used those skills as a basis for his decision-making skills which are remarkable in their speed and accuracy across all subjects and tasks. I asked him to reduce it to some usable details that I said I would share with my Corpwar readers, of which he has been a member for over 10 years.

He explained that in the Korean conflict the US flew the F-86 Sabre jet against the MiG-15. The MiG-15 was clearly a superior aircraft on paper (more thrust, speed, etc.). Yet the Americans had air superiority with a ~10:1 kill ratio over the MiG, meaning we shot down 10 of them for each one of ours shot down. Training played a role in this but it could not, alone, explain the extreme ratio. So, what was going on and how does this apply to conducting modern business?

It took a fighter pilot and mathematician to figure it out. It largely came down to basic aircraft canopy design. The Sabre jet had a bubble canopy providing the pilot a better view of the airspace environment. The MiG's canopy was much more enclosed, limiting the pilot’s peripheral view of the surrounding environment (note: this was largely before electronic threat detection but the principle is the same—today’s electronics extend the pilot’s ‘view’ of threats, expanding his or her ability to observe). There was another advantage in that the Sabre jet’s hydraulics responded very slightly quicker to the pilot’s control inputs than the MiG’s. So while the Sabre couldn’t turn as tight a radius, it could get into the turn quicker.

The two advantages were lethal to the enemy, or, relative to my readers, your corporate competition. In very broad strokes, here is the resulting rule and what it’s called: The party that can OBSERVE the situation, ORIENT to it, DECIDE what to do about it, and take appropriate ACTION will typically win. This is the basis of the ‘OODA loop’ or OODA cycle and it had a tremendous impact on military thinking.

It all gets down to speed. You need to get ‘inside’ a competitor’s decision cycle. The Sabre’s bubble canopy allowed the pilots to see, or observe, MiGs sooner and the American jet’s faster responding hydraulics allowed the pilot to implement Action quicker. Orienting and Deciding come with training and experience but you must see what’s going on and be able to implement your reaction. Thus, the Sabre's 10:1 advantage in the skies over Korea.

There’s much more to it than that, such as changing the environment quicker than your competition can react, or even comprehend, then promptly exploiting his confused and hasty decisions, but this outline is the usable, leverageable gist for the action oriented corporate warrior.

So, speed through the OODA loop. Think about it. We all use OODA loops whether we know it or not. The trick is to do it quicker than your competition.

If you get your team thinking formally in these terms (Observing, Orienting, Deciding and Acting), allowing them to get inside your competition’s corresponding OODA cycle, you will hammer them almost every time, especially if they have a cumbersome, meeting-heavy corporate culture.

Always be thinking: How can I get INSIDE my competition’s turning circle? This will confuse him since he is responding to old information; the way things were, not the way they are. During this phase you own them.

That’s how you win for your equity holders; that’s how you win for yourself.

Think about it…