Saturday, November 8, 2008

Upturning, in a Downturn

Once again, that Snake Guy advises


While helping a client quantify the financial rewards of social media I received a call from the reader many of my readers referred to as “that snake guy”. This stemmed from his response to a question I asked him back in the toughish times of 2003. I had asked him how someone should behave during an economic downturn. His answer was simple: They should “act like a…snake.” This caused a lot of comments from my readers, many using very colorful and pointed language.

Since he was now on the phone, and the country was involved in yet another downturn, this one nasty, I couldn’t help but ask him how he would approach things if he were not retired. Below is the brief but useful conversation. Clearly, his tendency toward boisterous, strong opinions has not faded with his fame.

"Well, come on Tal, read your own stuff! An enemy in chaos is prone to remarkable stupidity. Look around. A lot of management can't think on their feet anymore under the best of circumstances and many of the guys that still can are freaked out right now. They're managerially paralyzed, worried about how the board and equity holders will react to good old fashioned decisive CEO behavior. So they’re just focused on keeping the ship steady. No unnecessary rocking, thank you very much."

"So, what would you do?"

"Me? Simple. I'd double down. Just double down on where I wanted the company to be."

"You mean as in gambling?"

"That's right. 21."

"But what about pulling in and retrenching?"

"That's for idiots," he said laughing. I could easily picture his self-assured smile. "Look around. Now is a great time to be daring or even audacious. You're always talking about the competition being The Enemy, well, now is the time to figure out what your competition's got that you want and go for it! Just DO IT! Don't act for today. Act for tomorrow. Don't worry about pissing people off because they're gonna be pissed off no matter what you do. Hey, change is gonna happen anyway. You might as well make it in the direction where you want it to go, right?"

"So you would be on the offensive?"

"Damn straight. I'm buying."

"Buying? Now?" This struck me as contrarian but shouldn't have, given the source.

"Sure, nobody is going to be making much money for a while anyway. So making a little less because you bought some assets, well, so f’n what? Just make sure they're the sort of things that help you down the road." He paused then added, "Plus, it shows you're confident."

"Well, brave anyway."

"Of course. But that's a given. You have to be brave. But then good senior managers, hell ALL good managers, have to be. Show me a senior manager that isn't brave and I'll show you a problem."

"A problem to who?"

"Himself. Because if he worked for me he would be looking for a new job."

With that, the conversation moved onto (in approximate order): my daughter in Boulder ("You're kidding! She's now in college? Didn't we advise her on how to grow a babysitting business?"), Gene and Georgetti's steakhouse in Chicago ("I wouldn't say THE best, Tal. But damn close."), Emirates airlines First Class to Dubai ("Actually I've heard there's not much privacy in those new suites but with the right companion it would be fun [to try some funny business], Dubai's Sheikh Rashid Al Maktoum ("What's with all those islands?") and, of course, president elect Obama ("Well, I'm hoping...").

So, it was an interesting conversation. Take a moment and consider—maybe this is the time to "double down" not hunker down. But you will have to be brave.

Think about it…